US-Wahl: Positive Signale oder echte Veränderung?

Felix Pinkert, Philosoph

Wien, 9.11.2020

"Of course we're not a democracy" writes Mike Lee, Republican senator of Utah. Lee's point is that the United States is not a majoritarian democracy, but a constitutional republic. A guiding value in republican (lower-case "r") political thought is to prevent any one individual, faction, or even a majority from exercising unchecked, arbitrary power over others. 

As Senator Lee points out, it is thus an intended feature, not a bug, of the Constitution that a clear majority of the popular vote is not sufficient to enact the supposed "will of the majority". Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, will face checks and balances in the form of a predominantly Republican-appointed Supreme Court, and, depending on the outcome of the Georgia runoff election in January, possibly a Republican-controlled Senate. 

The checks and balances system, designed to reduce majority power, has important consequences for one policy area of particular interest to progressive or left-leaning Democrats: inequality of wealth and income. This is because checks and balances are not just suitable for protecting, say, religious minorities from opporession by a religious majority, they are also suitable for protecting economic minorities from economic majorities. In other words, they are suitable for protecting the few rich from the designs of the many who have less. This implication, too, might be an intended feature, given the historical examples that inspired the US Founding Fathers: the Roman Republic, and the Republic of Venice, both republican states governed by an aristocratic and plutocratic elite. 

This means that progressives should not be too optimistic about sweeping changes to economic policy that would drastically reduce inequality. The new government will be able to offer significant immediate economic relief to people who most need it, e.g. in the form of student debt forgiveness, or salary raises for federal workers. But, due to checks and balances, as well as the need to keep moderate Democrats on board, it may not be able to effect significant changes to long-term drivers inequality, e.g. through significantly increased (high) income, capital gains, or inheritance taxes. For seeing such changes, progressives need to build much stronger majorities, by convincing a broader base of people of their economic vision. The mid-term elections in 2022 will be a first indicator for whether they succeed in doing so, and whether we can expect more egalitarian changes in US economic policy. 

Carolina Plescia, Staatswissenschafterin

Wien, 9.11.2020

The acceptance of the election outcome by those who lost the election is fundamental for the peaceful transfer of power and for elections to serve the key role of legitimizing a political regime. Donald Trump declaration of a fraudulent election is likely to resonate with many of his 70+ million voters, possibly undermining the role of elections for a very long time. This is yet another element of President’s Trump strategy of de-legitimation, which has consisted in attacks not just to mail ballots but to political adversaries, the free press, immigrants, scientists, doctors, foreign countries and international institutions. Considering the fundamental distrust that today many people hold about their politicians and democracy, both in the US and in Europe, the distrust in mainstream media and elections that President Trump continues to fuel seriously undermines the role of democratic institutions and respect for the rule of law. Only with the support of a by-partisan coalition can Joe Biden attempt to restore confidence in democratic institutions and the rule of law, and strike political compromise in the face of a divided government and the growing polarization of the US public.

The election in fact provides a picture of a fundamentally divided American society between segments of the population that are liberal, pro-Abortion, and pro-climate change on the one hand and blue-collar workers on the other, which tend to be much more conservative and do not care about much else than a job that gives them dignity. The latter are likely to remain the ‘losers of globalization’ and opened to support Trump’s populism if mainstream politicians fail to compromise to meet their needs.

From a political science point of view, it will be interesting to see whether the 2020 election will serve as a point of departure for much needed reforms of US electoral law spanning rules to reduce voting disenfranchisement, to facilitate participation in the elections, to uniform electoral standards from state to state and to revisit the Electoral College system, which is increasingly unpopular among large segments of the population.